CORPS

OUSD (R&E) critical technology area(s): Advanced Computing and Software, Integrated Network Systems-of-Systems, Trusted AI and Autonomy

Objective: A software tool to predict casualty/patient streams and needs following large scale medical emergencies in austere environments, and project the lifesaving potential of various response options with limited or no access to real-time data or communications.

Description: The challenges underlying crisis medical response in austere and contested environments are significantly different than those underlying long-range planning or response in established theaters. Strategic and operational planning decisions are made in ample time with full situational awareness regarding the scope and nature of medical needs, availability and positioning of resources, and the immediate and emerging state of the theater. Crisis action decisions must often be made in much shorter time frames, using sparse, low-quality situational data that cannot be verified due to lack of secure communications and denied, disrupted, intermittent, and limited-bandwidth (DDIL) states. Furthermore, as resource allocation for medical response must be constrained by tactical and logistical requirements, the medical benefits of early and best medical response must be weighed against the tactical demands of the mission objectives. Thus, in scenarios where theater realities drive the timing, level, and means of medical response, decision makers must rapidly devise multiple optional courses of action and optimize their selection to accommodate tactical and logistical limitations. Without quantitative metrics assigned to the medical benefits of each response option, these lifesaving decisions must be made using multiple channels of low-quality situational data to obtain subjective medical benefits.

This topic seeks proposals for solutions that assist users with medical response decisions in austere environments with variable access to communications or situational data. The desired product will be focused on automated prediction of casualty/patient streams, identification of the related medical needs with variable latencies, and metrics-based evaluation of benefits gained from various responses as a dynamic function of time.

Solutions must have the potential for use in the civilian sector (i.e. integrate with civilian networks and infrastructure) as well as integration into existing DoD planning tools. Proposals shall outline the strategic and technical development of the proposed solution, including required data, data sources and environments, data quality management, and model development design and integration. As the technology will be fielded for military use in various operational environments, proposed approaches must be adaptable to variable levels of communication capability and medical care.

Phase I

This topic is soliciting Direct to Phase II (DP2) proposals only. As such, the offeror shall provide detail and documentation which demonstrates the accomplishment of a "Phase I-like" effort demonstrating feasibility and proof-of-concept. Demonstration of feasibility may include:

• Conceptual characterization of the complete product
• Relevant use cases, required data categories, and anticipated final capabilities
• Leveraged systems and workflow (as relevant)
• Proposed approach or methodology for model development (as relevant)
• Anticipated interactions between data and model components (as relevant)
• The presentation of scientific and technical material that support the above
• Design specifications for any computational or software components of a prototype

Proposals should contain preliminary data (published or unpublished) supporting the rationale for the development of the candidate product(s). Describe how the product will be usable in the operational continuum or the environmental setting(s) for which it is designed.

Phase II

This phase will focus on refinement and optimization of a prototype tool that can interact with users through a visual interface. The prototype should be designed to integrate decision criteria from users (e.g., response level and latency) with medical needs predictions from built-in models. Software interface must be sufficiently mature to receive input data from users and display the output for evaluation and further improvement of the tool’s feedback. Offerors should only propose products at or above Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 2.

The 18-month base period should focus on developing, integrating, and demonstrating the core capabilities of the prototype through measurable milestones and evaluations. The 6-month option period should focus on refining the prototype based on user feedback, validating performance in operationally relevant scenarios, and enabling transition by positioning the technology for Phase III development and eventual DoD and commercial adoption.

The proposal shall describe the planned prototype design, product development, testing, and validation of the prototype product in table-top like exercises. The testing and practical implementation of the prototype should be relevant to the requirements of medical command and control functions in austere and contested environments. The proposed work may include, but is not limited to, the following:

• Information required for a Phase 1 proposal, including selected methods/approaches (see above)
• Medical, scientific, and technical justification and selection criteria for specific approaches
• Anticipated data sources (e.g. theater, casualty, medical; natural, virtual) and types (organic v. synthetic, etc.)
• Interactions and relationships between the data and modeling components or the proposed work
• Detailed description of planned prototype design and development (communication requirements, data, architecture, software, interface, models, etc.)
• Methodology and outcome metrics for determination of functionality/utility
• Threshold and objective exit criteria

The investigator shall deliver no less than 4 prototypes supporting different military user evaluations. Each prototype should demonstrate increasing operational capability and maturity while reducing technical risk through measurable performance objectives. The proposal shall describe a detailed strategy for the Phase III effort to include dynamic uncertainty quantification to support operational decision-making and transition to both DoD and commercial applications.

Phase II Milestones (Base)

Milestone Technical Maturation Strategy: The 18-month base period focuses on “Develop, Integrate, and Demonstrate” while the 6-month option period emphasizes “Refine, Validate, and Enable Transition”. This approach provides measurable technical milestones, progressively retires technical risk while increasing operational realism through four prototype evaluations, and positions the technology for successful Phase III transition.

Phase III dual use applications

Phase III Dual use applications (Commercial DoD/Military): If successful, Phase II work will result in a final phase funded by sources other than a Federal government SBIR Program. Phase III awards may be made by any Government entity without further competition, creating a “SBIR-sourcing” (sole-source-like) tool for portfolio managers and advanced developers.

Final improvements to the product’s functionality should be completed during Phase III, and additional development will be performed as necessary to expand the methodologies and components included in the Phase II prototype and/or improve their capability. The resulting product will provide a decision-assist tool for medical response optimization in austere environments where access to data and communications ranges from full to null.

Phase III is expected to mature the Phase II prototype into an operational decision-support capability suitable for military and commercial use. Activities may include expanding predictive models, incorporating additional operational data sources, enhancing interoperability with existing planning and command and control systems, strengthening cyber security, and refining software functionality based on operational feedback.

The desired end-state of the research will be the full development of one or more products consisting of front- and back-end software for a digital tool that provides casualty stream predictions for a given event with minimal user input, interacts with users to receive known response parameters, and projects the health and lifesaving impacts of available response options on survivability. The product must demonstrate full functionality and reliability in tabletop and field exercises.

Military application: The potential product may transition to an Acquisition Program managed by the Service Product Developers for inclusion into various Service-specific mobile applications. Deployment will require appropriate cybersecurity certifications be met and the ability to join an existing Authority to Operate or obtain a separate ATO.

Commercial application: The product will provide a similar capability for the planning of response to non-military emergency events. (e.g., following natural disasters or war).

References

1. Quinn M.T., et al. (2024). Automating the Survival Chain and Revolutionizing Combat Casualty Care – Human-Technology Teaming on the Future Battlefield. Military Review (MJ-24-Combat-Casualty-Care-UA1). https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/MJ-24/Casualty-Care/MJ-24-Combat-Casualty-Care-UA1.pdf
2. Butler FK, Bennett B, Wedmore CI. Tactical Combat Casualty Care and Wilderness Medicine: Advancing Trauma Care in Austere Environments. Emerg Med Clin North Am. 2017 May;35(2):391-407. doi: 10.1016/j.emc.2016.12.005. PMID: 28411934.

Keywords

Medical response, austere environments, casualty stream predictions, contested logistics, decision aid, automation

TPOC-1-PoC

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