Defense Advanced Research Projects AgencyTagged Content List


Predicting how systems will behave

Showing 8 results for Forecasting + Programs RSS
The Biochronicity program conducts fundamental research aimed at improving battlefield medical interventions and combat performance by understanding the role and effects of time in and on human physiology and biological functions. Advances in the understanding of timing in biology could particularly benefit trauma care by expanding the window of opportunity for medical treatment and surgical intervention.
Over the last 15 years, the U.S. military has increasingly been called upon to face complex operational environments (OE) and diverse enemies. Such complex OEs require the actions of U.S. forces and host-nation or coalition partners to be based on a common holistic understanding of the OE (e.g., governments, population groups, security forces, and violent non-state actors) and, in particular, the causal dynamics that can manifest as unanticipated and often counter-intuitive outcomes.
The social sciences can play important roles in assisting military planners and decision-makers who are trying to understand complex human social behaviors and systems, potentially facilitating a wide range of missions including humanitarian, stability, and counter-insurgency operations. Current social science approaches to studying behavior rely on a variety of modeling methods—both qualitative and quantitative—which seek to make inferences about the causes of social phenomena on the basis of observations in the real-world. Yet little is known about how accurate these methods and models really are, let alone whether the connections they observe and predict are truly matters of cause and effect or mere correlations.
What is opaque to outsiders is often obvious – even if implicit – to locals. Habitus aims to capture and make local knowledge available to military operators, providing them with an insider view to support decision making.
The Prometheus program aims to improve military readiness and force health through development of a prognostic that can determine if an individual is contagious before he exhibits symptoms of illness. DARPA’s goal is to develop a molecular test for determining if an individual is likely to spread disease following exposure to an infectious agent and predict within 24 hours of exposure if that individual will become contagious. That ability to predict contagiousness would allow for specific planning and concentration of resources to prevent the spread of an illness from an individual to a population within the confined settings and close quarters typical of military operations.