Programs Home
Overview
Mission
Vision
Technical Program
Approach
Solicitation
BAA 07-10 (Archived)
|
|
|
|
Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)
Program Manager: Dr. Sean O'Brien
Approach:
Phase 1 will require building, testing, and evaluating computational social science models for forecasting various forms of country instability. The modeling capabilities will be evaluated at the end of Phase 1 based on their ability to retrospectively "forecast" several classes of events that are often associated with (and consequences of) country instability.
Phase 2 will consist of developing the decision support analytical and technical foundation for ICEWS. The key objective of Phase 2 is to develop the capability to generate robust DIME strategy/tactics/resource packages that could be applied to any particular configuration of factors driving the instability. A variety of methodologies will be explored to empirically "map" DIME actions to the model "levers" they are designed to influence, identify and evaluate robust DIME solutions to various stability challenges, and update model parameters as a result of changes occurring in the world.
Phase 3 will involve a live, in-theater test of the system's ability to generate robust solutions to fulfill Combatant Command stability objectives in both resource-constrained and unconstrained environments.
|
